makku
02-17-2005, 07:58 AM
Wall Street Journal
February 17, 2005
Pg. 4
U.S. Cites Iran Threat In Key Strait
Tehran Is Believed to Be Able To Stall Oil Shipping Out of Gulf Waterway
By David S. Cloud, Staff Reporter Of The Wall Street Journal
WASHINGTON -- Iran has acquired the military capability to temporarily halt ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf choke point through which an estimated 40% of the world's oil supply passes, according to U.S. intelligence officials.
Interruption of the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf would have an immediate effect on the world economy.
Vice Adm. Lowell Jacoby, head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said that Iran augmented its small naval forces last year by purchasing North Korean torpedo and missile boats as well as small submarines. As a result, "we judge Iran can briefly close the Strait of Hormuz, relying on a layered strategy using predominately naval, air and some ground forces," Adm. Jacoby said yesterday in prepared remarks before the Senate Intelligence Committee.
Iran's new conventional capabilities are an added concern to Bush administration officials, who have been focused on what they contend is Tehran's covert pursuit of nuclear weapons. Tehran says its nuclear program is for civilian power generation, not military purposes.
Tehran's naval purchases from North Korea buttress the Bush administration argument that the two regimes Mr. Bush once described as members of an "axis of evil" constitute the most significant U.S. national-security threats.
The U.S. Fifth Fleet is based in the Persian Gulf kingdom of Bahrain, in part to ensure the Strait of Hormuz -- a two-mile wide channel with Iran on one shore and Oman and the United Arab Emirates on the other -- remains open. Any move by Tehran to bring pressure on the West by closing the waterway, even temporarily, would invite rapid U.S. retaliation and also cost Tehran, which relies heavily on revenue from exporting its own oil through the strait.
But tensions between Washington and Tehran are high, and Iran is seeking any leverage it can use against the U.S. Yesterday, Iran's intelligence chief accused the U.S. of flying unmanned drones over Iranian territory to gather intelligence on the country's nuclear sites, echoing reports by U.S. news agencies in recent days that such flights are happening.
Widespread jitters about a possible U.S. or Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear complex were highlighted yesterday by an explosion in the southern Iranian city of Deylam, roughly 100 miles from a nuclear facility. Iranian officials gave various explanations, including that the blast, which caused oil prices to spike, was related to dam construction and friendly Iranian military fire. Interior Ministry spokesman Jahanbakhsh Khanjani dismissed rumors of a hostile attack. U.S. and Israeli officials said they weren't responsible for the explosion.
Also yesterday, Iran's state-run television station quoted the country's vice president, Mohammad Reza Aref, saying that the country would form a "united front" with Syria to deal with the "numerous challenges" both face. There was no specific mention of the U.S., but both countries are under U.S. sanctions and persistent pressure from the Bush administration. The U.S. wants Iran to end its nuclear program, and, among other complaints, wants Syria to cease its support for terror groups.
Adm. Jacoby said the U.S. believes that Iran, unless constrained by a nuclear nonproliferation agreement, "will have the ability to produce nuclear weapons early in the next decade." Israel's Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom told reporters in London yesterday that Israeli experts believe Iran actually could be much closer to having the capability to produce nuclear arms. "We believe in six months from today they will end all the tests and experiments they are doing to have that knowledge," he said.
Yesterday's Senate panel hearing assessing world-wide threats to the U.S. dealt only briefly with Iran. But Adm. Jacoby, Central Intelligence Agency Director Porter Goss and State Department intelligence chief Thomas Fingar were unanimous in describing Iran as the major threat to U.S. interests in the Middle East.
Iran maintains a sizable conventional military, but it relies largely on outdated Russian, Chinese and even U.S. equipment, stemming from the days when Iran was a U.S. ally. Adm. Jacoby described the addition of the torpedo and missile boats as a "marginal" increase in the country's capabilities. He didn't say how long Iran could potentially disrupt the flow of oil.
Along its side of the strait, Iran has long deployed missiles, which it used against tankers during its 1980-88 war with Iraq. Its offshore oil platforms also can be adapted for military use, said Chuck Nash, a retired U.S. Navy captain, at a news conference earlier this month. Mr. Goss said Iran is making improvements to its Shahab-3 long-range ballistic missile, which has a range of more than 800 miles, long enough to strike Israel.
But Tehran is more likely to resort to unconventional tactics against the U.S.'s military superiority. At yesterday's hearing, Mr. Fingar said that Iran is warning potential enemies that, if attacked, it would unleash terror groups it finances and trains. "They seem to be saying, in effect, 'You may be able to defeat us militarily, but you cannot protect all your people everywhere, all the time,' " Mr. Fingar said.
Over the next year, Adm. Jacoby said he believes Iran will continue its support for terrorism and aid for insurgents in Iraq. Tehran's objective is to see a weak, Shia-dominated Iraq that poses no threat to Iran. "Iran's long-term goal is to see the U.S. leave Iraq and the region," he said.
February 17, 2005
Pg. 4
U.S. Cites Iran Threat In Key Strait
Tehran Is Believed to Be Able To Stall Oil Shipping Out of Gulf Waterway
By David S. Cloud, Staff Reporter Of The Wall Street Journal
WASHINGTON -- Iran has acquired the military capability to temporarily halt ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf choke point through which an estimated 40% of the world's oil supply passes, according to U.S. intelligence officials.
Interruption of the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf would have an immediate effect on the world economy.
Vice Adm. Lowell Jacoby, head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said that Iran augmented its small naval forces last year by purchasing North Korean torpedo and missile boats as well as small submarines. As a result, "we judge Iran can briefly close the Strait of Hormuz, relying on a layered strategy using predominately naval, air and some ground forces," Adm. Jacoby said yesterday in prepared remarks before the Senate Intelligence Committee.
Iran's new conventional capabilities are an added concern to Bush administration officials, who have been focused on what they contend is Tehran's covert pursuit of nuclear weapons. Tehran says its nuclear program is for civilian power generation, not military purposes.
Tehran's naval purchases from North Korea buttress the Bush administration argument that the two regimes Mr. Bush once described as members of an "axis of evil" constitute the most significant U.S. national-security threats.
The U.S. Fifth Fleet is based in the Persian Gulf kingdom of Bahrain, in part to ensure the Strait of Hormuz -- a two-mile wide channel with Iran on one shore and Oman and the United Arab Emirates on the other -- remains open. Any move by Tehran to bring pressure on the West by closing the waterway, even temporarily, would invite rapid U.S. retaliation and also cost Tehran, which relies heavily on revenue from exporting its own oil through the strait.
But tensions between Washington and Tehran are high, and Iran is seeking any leverage it can use against the U.S. Yesterday, Iran's intelligence chief accused the U.S. of flying unmanned drones over Iranian territory to gather intelligence on the country's nuclear sites, echoing reports by U.S. news agencies in recent days that such flights are happening.
Widespread jitters about a possible U.S. or Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear complex were highlighted yesterday by an explosion in the southern Iranian city of Deylam, roughly 100 miles from a nuclear facility. Iranian officials gave various explanations, including that the blast, which caused oil prices to spike, was related to dam construction and friendly Iranian military fire. Interior Ministry spokesman Jahanbakhsh Khanjani dismissed rumors of a hostile attack. U.S. and Israeli officials said they weren't responsible for the explosion.
Also yesterday, Iran's state-run television station quoted the country's vice president, Mohammad Reza Aref, saying that the country would form a "united front" with Syria to deal with the "numerous challenges" both face. There was no specific mention of the U.S., but both countries are under U.S. sanctions and persistent pressure from the Bush administration. The U.S. wants Iran to end its nuclear program, and, among other complaints, wants Syria to cease its support for terror groups.
Adm. Jacoby said the U.S. believes that Iran, unless constrained by a nuclear nonproliferation agreement, "will have the ability to produce nuclear weapons early in the next decade." Israel's Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom told reporters in London yesterday that Israeli experts believe Iran actually could be much closer to having the capability to produce nuclear arms. "We believe in six months from today they will end all the tests and experiments they are doing to have that knowledge," he said.
Yesterday's Senate panel hearing assessing world-wide threats to the U.S. dealt only briefly with Iran. But Adm. Jacoby, Central Intelligence Agency Director Porter Goss and State Department intelligence chief Thomas Fingar were unanimous in describing Iran as the major threat to U.S. interests in the Middle East.
Iran maintains a sizable conventional military, but it relies largely on outdated Russian, Chinese and even U.S. equipment, stemming from the days when Iran was a U.S. ally. Adm. Jacoby described the addition of the torpedo and missile boats as a "marginal" increase in the country's capabilities. He didn't say how long Iran could potentially disrupt the flow of oil.
Along its side of the strait, Iran has long deployed missiles, which it used against tankers during its 1980-88 war with Iraq. Its offshore oil platforms also can be adapted for military use, said Chuck Nash, a retired U.S. Navy captain, at a news conference earlier this month. Mr. Goss said Iran is making improvements to its Shahab-3 long-range ballistic missile, which has a range of more than 800 miles, long enough to strike Israel.
But Tehran is more likely to resort to unconventional tactics against the U.S.'s military superiority. At yesterday's hearing, Mr. Fingar said that Iran is warning potential enemies that, if attacked, it would unleash terror groups it finances and trains. "They seem to be saying, in effect, 'You may be able to defeat us militarily, but you cannot protect all your people everywhere, all the time,' " Mr. Fingar said.
Over the next year, Adm. Jacoby said he believes Iran will continue its support for terrorism and aid for insurgents in Iraq. Tehran's objective is to see a weak, Shia-dominated Iraq that poses no threat to Iran. "Iran's long-term goal is to see the U.S. leave Iraq and the region," he said.